A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
