Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".